The balancing Act in Mexico’s COVID-19 response

Codex Telleriano Remensis depiction of the cocoliztli epidemic of 1544–5 in Mexico. The accompanying text mentions that “there was a great mortality of indians” (BNF, ms. 385).
State capacity in action. Formats to keep track of contacts, document cases (partial view) and flow chart of treatment of contacts and when to perform testing already in place by February 7 (6 weeks before Mexico declared community transmission present)
Epidemic scenarios with fixed parameters, only changing the initial number of cases.
Epidemiological surveillance for H1N1 tests in Mexico, according to SISVEFLU. Note that the H1N1 flu season 2019–20 already exhibited declining trends by the start of the year.
State capacity over time. Influenza tracking by the Mexican health system up till week 10 of 2020. Information is not limited to flu, but is compared to other diseases according to CIE-10 diagnostic codes as well as patterns from prior years, adjusted for seasonality.
Surveillance for COVID-19 in flu samples as of March 23. February 27 report: “En seguimiento a la búsqueda intencionada de posible circulación de SARS-CoV-2 en el país, se han analizado 125 muestras de IRAG negativas a influenza y a otros virus respiratorios, provenientes del Sistema de Vigilancia Epidemiológica de Influenza, cuyo resultado fue negativo para SARS-CoV-2.”
Susana Distancia showing a 1.5 meter social distancing bubble



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Alberto Diaz-Cayeros

Alberto Diaz-Cayeros

Mexicano orgulloso, migrante renuente. Economista ITAM y Politólogo Duke. Senior Fellow en CDDRL y Director Centro Estudios Latinoamericanos Stanford University